Skip to main content

New story in Health from Time: Falling Coronavirus Testing Numbers Obscures the Reality of the U.S.’s Pandemic Reality



July was devastating in the U.S. After the country had appeared to flatten the curve in late spring, daily new cases of COVID-19 skyrocketed as the season turned, peaking at 20.5 per 100,000 people on July 18, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University (JHU). After some hemming and hawing, many local officials of states seeing resurgences reinstated some of the restrictions, meant to limit the spread of the virus, which had previously been lifted. On the face of it, these decisions seemed to have paid off: Though the U.S. recently passed 5 million total confirmed cases, it took longer (17 days) to go from 4 million to 5 million than it did (15 days) to go from 3 million to 4 million. And in the past two weeks, the per-capita daily case rate in the U.S. has fallen by four—equal to a drop of about 13,100 new daily cases.

The reality, however, might not be so rosy. That’s because in that same time frame, testing for COVID-19 in the U.S. has also fallen at practically the same rate. A little over two weeks ago, about 820,000 new tests were being administered per day, according to the COVID Tracking Project. By Aug. 12, that had dropped to about 710,000:

As U.S. President Donald Trump gears up for the 2020 election cycle, he’s been keen to minimize the impact of COVID-19 under his watch, largely by latching on to any data or talking point that suggests the epidemic has been overblown by those he sees as his political enemies. His favorite: the only reason U.S. case numbers are up is because the country is testing more.

Here’s the thing: if more tests reveal more cases, that, on its own, does not mean a problem doesn’t exist. What would be needed to prove that is a trend showing that as we test more people, the share of positive tests fall. And yet, this has not been the reality at all. In fact, over the past two months, when testing rates increased, so did positive-result rates. And when testing rates fell…so did positive-result rates:

This is a bit complicated, but it’s important, so stay with me here. Most experts who have been watching the pandemic since the start believe that early on, we did not understand the full scale of the spread of the virus—because we were only testing those who got sick. But now we know that many people can contract the virus, show no symptoms whatsoever, then pass it on. When there’s a robust and accessible testing system, even these asymptomatic cases will be found and added to the numbers. But, as soon as testing becomes inaccessible again—which seems to be happening in the U.S. right now—we’re back to where we were before: probably missing cases left and right.

Read more: It’s The Hunger Games for laboratories.’ Why some people are waiting weeks for their COVID-19 test results

As fall approaches, those in charge at every level—from elected federal officials responsible for the lives of millions to parents responsible for the lives of one or two—are going to have to make nearly impossible decisions about how to live in a post-pandemic, pre-vaccine world. Increased testing in the U.S. will be essential if we want these decisions to be even partially informed.

That might mean, as Dr. Ashish K. Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, has suggested, adding cheaper and more rapid types of testing to the overall mix (even if these types are less accurate than the expensive and tedious kinds). It might mean some use of “pooled testing,” which takes genetic samples from a bunch of people, combines them into a sort of mega-sample, which is what gets sent to testing. And given the Trump Administration’s clear disdain for testing—and resulting abdication of responsibility for maintaining a robust testing system—it might mean governors and mayors really stepping up on this issue, as the leaders of Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia (three Democrat and three Republican) did recently when they banded together to buy three million tests.

It’s likely too early to tell for certain whether the U.S. is truly stabilizing, as the surface numbers appear to suggest. But declaring victory now, at a moment when many people can’t get tests or face nearly two-week delays for results is like turning off the lights and claiming you eradicated a cockroach infestation.

Popular posts from this blog

New story in Health from Time: 3 More People Diagnosed With Coronavirus in Northern California

Three more people in Northern California have been diagnosed with the coronavirus known as 2019-nCoV, health officials in the area said Sunday, doubling the number of cases in the state and bringing the total across the country to 11 . The patients, whose symptoms are not yet serious enough to warrant hospitalization, are being kept in their homes, where they are being closely monitored, the San Francisco Chronicle reports . Two of the patients are a husband and wife from San Benito County. The husband fell ill after he returned home from Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. It is believed he transferred the virus to his wife, who had not been to China. The other patient became sick while visiting family in Santa Clara County. She also previously visited Wuhan. Since arriving in the United States on Jan. 23, she has only left her home twice to seek out medical assistance. Officials from both counties said they are working to identify anyone who may have come into cont...

New video by blogilates on YouTube

Day 8 - 14 | Blogilates 2020 Challenge You guys are CRUSHING the #2020Challenge so far! Idk about you but my abs are soooooore! This week, we're doing 20 reps of abs every day + 20 reps of another new exercise every day! If you need a little extra motivation, text my number (510-692-4556) and tell me all about it so we can come up with a solution together! This link also works: https://ift.tt/2Qjqw7G This week's moves are: Jan. 8th (starts 0:48) - 20 butterfly bridges + 20 criss cross (butt + abs) Jan. 9th (starts 2:43) - 20 oil riggers + 20 rollovers (arms + abs) Jan. 10th (starts 8:29) - 20 lunges + 20 leg outs (legs + abs) Jan. 11th (starts 11:03) - 20 walnut crushers + 20 single leg drops (back + abs) Jan. 12th (starts 13:41) - 20 sprinters + 20 crunches (obliques + abs) Jan. 13th (starts 16:27) - 20 squat jumps + 20 russian twists (cardio + abs) Jan. 14th (starts 18:57) - 20 plank jacks + 20 butt ups (total body + abs) Here is where I get all of my music! Epidemic Sound: ...

New story in Health from Time: Coronavirus Cases Outside China Are Accelerating Rapidly. Here’s What to Know

A surge in deadly coronavirus cases outside China is raising concerns that the outbreak has reached a new stage and could continue its global spread to even more vulnerable countries. In the central Chinese province of Hubei, where the virus is believed to have originated, the number of cases appears to be stabilizing, according to government figures. But the number of people infected elsewhere in the world is rising quickly, with clusters in South Korea , Italy, Iran and a cruise ship docked in Japan. As of Monday, more than 2,200 cases of the virus, officially called COVID-19, have been reported outside of mainland China, where the overwhelming majority of the 79,000 cases have been located since officials first discovered the disease in December. The number of deaths outside China has also increased to 166, including 50 in Iran and four in Italy. In a news conference Monday, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the WHO...